DayCents

Mortgages

ARM vs Fixed Mortgage Calculator

An ARM buys a lower rate for a fixed number of years and hands you the interest-rate risk afterwards. The caps bound how bad that can get, so the honest question is not what rates will do — it is whether you come out ahead if they do the worst the contract allows.

Most caps read like 2/2/5 — first, then periodic, then lifetime.

Selling or refinancing before the intro ends is what makes an ARM work.

The fixed loan costs less by

$37,506

Over your horizon, assuming every adjustment hits its cap.

Your payment could rise to $3,848. Decide whether you could carry that, not whether you expect to have to.

ARM payment during the intro
$2,334
Fixed payment, unchanging
$2,594
Saved each month during the intro
$260
Total saved before the first reset
$15,606
Payment after the first adjustment
$2,803
Payment jump at the first reset
$468
Worst-case rate
10.75%

The introductory rate plus the lifetime cap. It cannot go higher.

Months after the reset before the ARM loses
2 years 4 months

How this calculator works

Both loans are amortised month by month over your horizon. The ARM runs at the introductory rate, jumps by the first adjustment cap at the reset, then rises by the periodic cap each year until it reaches the lifetime ceiling, re-amortising over the remaining term at every reset. Cost is payments made plus the balance still owed, so an early sale is compared fairly. The break-even is the month the ARM's cumulative cost first overtakes the fixed loan's.

This is deliberately the worst case: every adjustment hitting its cap. Real ARMs follow an index and often adjust by less, or fall. Modelling the likely case would require forecasting rates, which nobody does reliably — so this bounds the downside instead. Rate floors, negative amortisation structures, and conversion options are not modelled.

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Frequently asked questions

Is an ARM a good idea?

It is a reasonable trade when you are confident you will sell or refinance before the introductory period ends, and when you could still afford the capped worst-case payment if you could not. It becomes a bad idea when the low initial payment is what makes the house affordable at all.

What do the ARM caps mean?

A 2/2/5 structure means the rate can rise at most 2 points at the first adjustment, 2 points at each one after, and 5 points above the initial rate over the life of the loan. The lifetime cap is the ceiling — a 5.75% ARM with a 5-point cap can never exceed 10.75%.

How much does an ARM actually save at the start?

Typically half a point to a point and a half below the fixed rate, though the gap narrows and occasionally inverts depending on the yield curve. On $400,000 a one-point saving is around $250 a month — real money, and the whole case for taking the risk.

What happens when the introductory period ends?

The rate resets to an index plus a fixed margin, then adjusts annually within the caps. Most current ARMs track SOFR. The payment re-amortises over the remaining term, so a reset late in the loan moves the payment more than the rate change alone suggests.

Can I just refinance if rates rise?

Only if you qualify at the time — which depends on rates, your income, your credit and the home's value, none of them guaranteed to cooperate. Refinancing is a plan that fails precisely when you need it most. Treat it as a hope, not a hedge.

Disclaimer: DayCents provides this calculator for educational purposes only. Results are estimates based on your inputs and the stated assumptions — they are not financial advice, a quote, or an offer of credit. Consult a qualified financial professional before making major money decisions.